Why AP called the presidential election for Joe Biden

Election 2020 Biden
Election 2020 Biden (AP)
18:36pm, Sat 07 Nov 2020
CBAD8A00-D2B9-4E0E-ADDF-D0366C357A34 Created with sketchtool. E9A4AA46-7DC3-48B8-9CE2-D75274FB8967 Created with sketchtool. 65CCAE04-4748-4D0F-8696-A91D8EB3E7DC Created with sketchtool.

As election day ground on into “election week,” it became increasingly clear that Democrat Joe Biden would oust President Donald Trump from the White House.

Late-counted ballots in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia continued to keep Mr Biden in the lead and offered him multiple paths to victory.

The questions, rather, were these — where he would win, when it would happen and by how much.

On Saturday, Mr Biden captured the presidency when The Associated Press declared him the victor in his native Pennsylvania at 11.25am local time.

That got him the state’s 20 electoral votes, which pushed him over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to prevail.

It was the final piece to fall into place after the former vice president carved a path to the White House by recapturing Democrats’ “blue wall,” a trio of Great Lakes states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — that Mr Trump narrowly won in 2016.

Election 2020 Protests Pennsylvania (AP)

Those states had long served as a bulwark against Republican presidential candidates.

But he also made historic gains in the Sun Belt, becoming the first Democrat to win Arizona since 1996. He also held a narrow lead of more than 7,000 votes on Saturday in Georgia, where a Democrat has not won since 1992.

Democrats entered election day confident that Mr Biden would win. But their hopes for a landslide that would quickly repudiate Trumpism — something that polls helped amplify — did not materialise.

Florida, the president’s adopted state and one of the largest electoral prizes, went for Mr Trump on Tuesday.

And a promising early Biden lead in North Carolina eroded. Mr Trump continues to hold a narrow lead there, though the race is still too early to call and mail-in ballots postmarked by the November 3 election day can still be counted until Thursday.

On election night, both candidates stacked up wins in predictable places. Mr Biden won the West Coast, and carried Democratic states in New England and the mid Atlantic. Trump won much of the South, Texas and rural, sparsely populated states in the Mountain West and Midwest.

And the slow-going nature of the vote count? Blame the coronavirus pandemic. The election, in many ways a referendum on Mr Trump’s poor management of the virus, led to widespread use of mail-in voting for the first time in many states.

Though five states conduct elections by mail, most did not. Concern that voters could catch the virus by waiting in line at crowded polling sites led election officials across the US to scramble to quickly adopt the voting practice.

But mail-in ballots also take a long time to verify, process and count, delaying the tally.

Mr Trump, who refused on Saturday to concede the race, prematurely declared victory during a news conference at the White House early on Wednesday morning, arguing that he was ahead and “it’s not like, ‘Oh, it’s close.’”

But as mail-in ballots continued to be counted they overwhelmingly favoured Mr Biden and his lead continued to grow.

One big reason for that? For months, Mr Trump has discouraged his supporters from voting that way, falsely claiming that voting by mail would lead to widespread voter fraud.

It was a message he kept amplifying on Saturday.

Sign up to our newsletter